Cross-Channel Halo Metrics

Bayesian MMM estimates based on 70-week historical data. Isolating upper-funnel demand generation from lower-funnel demand capture.

Meta → Amazon Search Lift
+18.4%
Correlated with 2.1 week adstock lag
TikTok → DTC Organic Lift
+12.7%
Correlated with 1.4 week adstock lag
Amazon Ads True Incremental ROAS
1.8x
Platform reports 4.2x (57% Over-attributed)

AI Capital Allocation

Amazon Search has hit the saturation curve. Shifting $10,000 from Amazon Sponsored Products to Meta Prospecting is modeled to increase overall blended revenue by $14,200 over a 30-day window.

70-Week Spend vs. Brand Search Demand

Visualizing the delayed Halo Effect (Adstock) of top-funnel spend on Amazon brand search velocity.

Meta Spend TikTok Spend Amazon Brand Search Vol

Diminishing Returns (Saturation Curve)

Reported ROAS vs. True Incremental (Bayesian)